Conference Championships Muddy the NCAA Picture

Published by Adam Schneider/DyeStatCOLLEGE.com Editor on November 2nd, 2016

Looking at the meets before the weekend it looked like we would have solidified the trophy favorites. That was not the case. Heat and altitude affected the Pac-12 meet and Syracuse, Colorado, Stanford, Wisconsin, Iona, Michigan State and even Oregon had runners step up at their conference meets. When teams start running the 10,000-meter distance at the NCAA regional meets, that will have another affect on the rosters of the top 10 teams. It will also play a factor in which team wins the NCAA championship. 

When the Pac-12 championship men’s race started at 2,400 altitude it was 88 degrees. Oregon and Washington seemed to be the most affected by the conditions. It was not a shock to see Colorado win its sixth consecutive Pac-12 title. Sophomore John Dressel and senior Ben Saarel had not pushed the pace at Pre-Nationals and they ran hard in Tucson. If they had run that hard at Pre-Nationals that would have been a tight competition between Oregon and Colorado for the team title. The most interesting development at the Pac-12 Conference meet was that it marked the first time Thomas Ratcliffe donned a jersey for Stanford. It was his second cross country race ever! Stanford battled with Colorado to the finish but lost 41 to 47. 

What is clear now is that there are 10 potential trophy winners with Northern Arizona as the favorite, but not a big favorite. Last year Colorado and Syracuse were the clear favorites to win the title. Right now eight teams could win because of the way they have been developed by their coaches and the talent they have available.

1. Northern Arizona - The Lumberjacks took the first six spots at the Big Sky Championships and, led by senior Futsum Zeinasellasie’s win, won their ninth title in the last ten years. Futsum, third at the NCAA meet in 2014, and senior Nathan Weitz redshirted last year and Northern Arizona missed on winning a trophy for the first time since 2011. Futsum made his season debut and finished second to lead Northern Arizona at Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational to a team victory. Junior Matthew Baxter has become a solid #2. He won the Sycamore Invitational and he has only lost to Zeinasellasie on the team in the last three races. Sophomore Tyler Day was the Lumberjacks’ top runner last year looks like a number three this year after finishing third at the Big Sky Championships and finished 17th in Wisconsin. Junior Cory Glines has been Northern Arizona’s #4 runner after finishing 20th in Wisconsin and fourth at Big Sky. The team is so deep they have eight solid runners. Seniors Andy Trouard and Weitz, freshman Geordie Beamish and sophomore Peter Lomong are battling for the other three spots. At the Wisconsin Invitatational the #1 to #5 gap was :31 and at Big Sky it was :34. Next for Northern Arizona is the D1 Mountain Regional on November 11th.

2. Colorado - The Buffaloes barely won the toughest conference in the nation, Pac-12 by a 41-47 margin ahead of Stanford at 2400’ altitude and 88 degrees in Tucson, Arizona. Led by Senior Ben Saarel in third, Colorado #1 to #4 gap was :23, but the #1 to #5 gap was :39. Colorado’s top returnees, Saarel (8th in 2013 and 7th in 2014 and sophomore John Dressel (26th in 2015), took it easy in their first race at ISU Pre-Nationals, 28th and 27th respectively. Dressel was Colorado’s #3 runner at Pac-12 after finishing 6th. At Pre-Nationals sophomore Ryan Forsyth finished 15th to lead Colorado to third as a team. At Pac-12 Forsyth was the #4 runner in 8th overall. Senior Zach Perrin was fourth at Pac-12s and 30th at Pre-Nationals. Redshirt freshman Joe Klecker was the #5 runner at Pac-12 in 19th. Freshman Reilly Friedman, junior Adam Peterman, and sophomore Paul Miller will battle for the last spots on the NCAA team. Next for Colorado is the D1 Mountain Regional on November 11th.

3. Stanford - Sophomore Grant Fisher was the Pac-12 runner-up and led the Cardinal to a runner-up performance. Senior Sean McGorty led the newest freshman sensation in Palo Alto, Thomas Ratcliffe, accross the line as they finished 7th and 8th. McGorty and Fisher came into the season as one of the to 1-2 combinations of any team as they finished 7th and 17th in last year’s NCAA championships, respectively. Ratcliffe had never run in a cross country race until he won the Stanford Invitational in 23:17 as an unattached entrant. McGorty and Fisher ran, but did not finish, at the San Francisco Invitational to start the year but did not finish their first races until running at Wisconsin Invitational. Fisher (2nd) and McGorty (6th) led Stanford to a runner-up finish to Northern Arizona (78 to 117). Ratcliffe did not race in Wisconsin and if he had run like he did at Pac-12 Stanford would have made the battle for the team title less than a 10 point gap. Junior Garrett Sweatt (69th at 2015 NCAA) has become a consistent #4 runner and was 14th at Pac-12 championships. Juniors Jack Keelan and Sam Wharton were #4 and #5 runners at Wisconsin but #8 and #9 at Pac-12. They were 39th and 100th at the 2014 NCAA meet, respectively. Sophomores Steven Fahy and Blair Hurlock and freshmen Alex Ostberg and Will Lauer have been contributors and they will have an opportunity to race in the next two meets. Next for Stanford is the D1 West Regional on November 11th.

4. Iona - The Gaels took the first 8 spots at the MAAC championships to win their 26th consecutive conference title. Senior Kieran Clements was the top Gael for his third consecutive race. Iona was 5th (240) at the Wisconsin Invitational and were led by Clements (7th) and junior Gilbert Kirui (12th). Clements has improved this year after finishing 57th in the 2013 NCAA championships and 58th in 2015. Kirui was 20th last year. Kirui was part of a solid top 5 (:19 separation) that dominated the Paul Short Run (34 to 115 for Georgetown and 142 for Adams State). Junior Johannes Motschman was third at MAAC and finished 10th at Paul Short Run (#4 runner) followed by a 47th place finish at Wisconsin Invitational (#3 runner). Sophomore Liam Dee was fourth at MAAC and #4 runner in Wisconsin, and finished 12th at Paul Short as the #5 runner. Two runners have recently joined the top 7, junior Chartt Miller (43rd at 2015 NCAA meet) and freshman Jac Hopkins. Miller made his debut at MAAC by finishing fifth and Hopkins has only lost to Clements among Iona runners in his two races (2nd at MAAC). Junior Andrew Tario finished 7th at Paul Short Run (#3 runner) and just :12 back from Clements but was 1:05 back at Wisconsin Invitational and :26 back at MAAC. Junior Brandon Allen (#6 runner at Paul Short and Wisconsin) could also contribute. Next for Iona is the D1 Northeast Regional on November 11th. 

5. BYU - The Cougars beat nationally ranked Portland for the WCC championship, 24-45. The Cougar’s top NCAA returners from their 12th place team were injured this year but senior Nicolas Montanez and junior Jonathan Harper returned from the NCAA team and have become the leaders of this year’s team. Montanez finished 6th at WCC as the Cougars had a pack finish. Montanez was ninth at the Wisconsin Invitational to lead BYU to a third place finish behind #1 Northern Arizona and #3 Stanford. At Virginia Panorama Farms Montanez led BYU to victory over defending national champion Syracuse with a fourth place finish. Junior Jonathan Harper finished 2nd to lead BYU at the WCC championships and was #2 for the Cougars at Wisconsin by finishing 18th and #3 for BYU in Virginia by finishing 8th. Sophomore Rory Linkletter was 22nd in Wisconsin as the #3 Cougar and 9th in Virginia as the #4 runner. In Virginia sophomore Clayton Young was fifth as BYU’s #2 runner and freshman Brayden McLelland 13th. Young was seventh at WCC as BYU’s #5 and McClelland was 5th as the #3 runner. Both are helping the Cougars create a consistent Cougar top five. Sophomore Danny Carney 16th and senior Mitchell Briggs 19th also ran well at Virginia resulting in a BYU top seven separation of :36. Senior Spencer Hansen joined BYU as it’s #5 runner in Wisconsin and there was an under :36 gap for the top 5. These three seem to be solid candidates for the Cougar top seven if not better due to the increased distance to 10,000m for the next two meets. Next for BYU is the D1 Mountain Regional on November 11th.

6. Syracuse - As expected the defending national championships dominated the ACC championships (29 to 72 for Virginia). Junior Justyn Knight has been undefeated in his three races against highly rated competition. Fellow junior Colin Bennie has struggled compared to last year when Knight (fourth) and Bennie (eighth) led the Orangemen to the national title. Bennie was fifth at ACC, 14th at Wisconsin Invitational and 6th at Virginia Panorama Farms. Junior Philo Germano was 9th at ACC (#5 for Syracuse), 28th at Wisconsin (#3 runner), and 7th in Virginia (#3). Transfer Iliass Aouani was sixth at ACC (#3 for Syracuse) and 12th in Virginia (#4 for the Orange) but was 86th in Wisconsin (#5). Syracuse finished fourth in Wisconsin (if Aouani had run more like the other two meets the Orangemen would have finished second). Senior Joel Hubbard was eighth for Syracuse at the ACC championships and as the #4 runner and 38th at Wisconsin Invitational (#4 runner). The Orange are not as deep as last year. Senior Adam Visokay was 87th at the Wisconsin Invitaitonal (#6), Freshmen Griff Molino and Kevin James are improving and junior Shawn Wilson and sophimore TJ Hornberger have experience and could contribute. Next for Syracuse is the D1 Northeast Regional on November 11th. 

7. Arkansas - Senior Frankline Tonui (40th) and junior Jack Bruce (23rd) returned from last year’s all-American finishes and the team’s sixth place finish. Junior Alex George (176th) has joined Tonui as Arkansas’ top runner. He won the SEC and Battle-in-Beantown races to lead Arkansas to 1st and 3rd place team finishes, respectively. Arkansas edged Mississippi 25 to 38 for the Razorbacks’ 7th straight SEC title. George was 14th (#3 runner) at ISU Pre-Nationals where Arkansas was second. Tonui was second at Pre-Nationals and finished fifth (#3 runner) at the SEC championships. George and Tonui finished 2-3 to dominate the Chili Pepper Invitational. Bruce was 12th (#2 runner) at ISU Pre-Nationals and fourth (#2 runner) at SEC championships. In his first race of the cross country season sophomore Andrew Ronoh finished 6th (#4 runner) at the SEC championships. Junior Austen Dalquist finished 9th (#5 runner) at SEC Championships. Senior Kyle Hosting and sophomore Cameron Griffith had been trading the #5 spot on the team until Ronoh opened his season. Senior Aidan Swain and freshman Carter Persyn could join the team as seventh man in the next two meets. Next for Arkansas is the D1 South Central Regional on November 11th.

8. Oregon - By any measure Oregon as a team did not perform well (weather conditions or not) at the Pac-12 championships with a fourth place finish. Edward Cheserek did win an unprecedented fourth conference championship and at this point in the season he is undefeated, for the first time in his career. Sophomores Matthew Maton and Tanner Anderson (56th at 2015 NCAA meet) had been consistent #2-#3 runners until the Pac-12 championships, 28th and 30th, respectively, as #4-#5 runners. At the Washington Invitational they helped the Ducks win by finishing 4th (#3) and 6th (#4), respectively. At ISU Pre-Nationals they were 4th (#2) and 18th (#3) to help the Ducks win one of the top invitationals all year. Junior Travis Neuman was Oregon’s #2 runner last year and finished 46th at the NCAA meet but he had a slow start to the season after he was injured during the indoor track season. He was 13th at Pac-12 as Oregon’s #2 runner. Freshman Levi Thomet (22nd) was #3 at Pac-12 Championships and #4 at ISU Pre-Nationals (26th) and could be one of Oregon’s top runners if he can handle the increased distance the next two weeks. Juniors Sam Prakel (third at Washington Invitational), Blake Haney and Bryan Fernandez and seniors Tim Gorman and Jake Leingang (50th at 2015 NCAA meet) could all help the Ducks fill out the top seven when the races move to 10,000m. Next for Portland is the D1 West Regional on November 11th.

9. UCLA - The Bruins lost all-American Lane Werley from the team that finihsed 14th last year. Two seniors from that team Ferdinand Erdman (181st) and Jonah Diaz (122nd) have improved significantly. At the Pac-12 championships the Bruins had an early lead and finished 3rd, led by Edman’s 5th place finish. His tenth place finish led UCLA at the Wisconsin Invitational where the Bruins finished sixth. Diaz led two teams to 10-11-12 positions. Freshman Colin Burke and senior Austin O’Neil followed Diaz. Diaz was the Bruin #2 runner in Wisconsin (27th). Burke (57th) and O’Neil (69th) were also the #3-#4 runners at Wisconsin. Senior Daniel De La Torre joined the top 7 for the first time at the Pac-12 meet and he was the #5 runner for the Bruins (20th). Senior Myles Smith, freshman Garrett Reynolds and junior Jackson Marshall will battle to make the team the next two meets. Next for UCLA is the D1 West Regional on November 11th.

10. Mississippi - The SEC championships became a two-team race between #7 Arkansas and the Runnin’ Rebels. By 2000m each team had their top five in the top 14 overall. By 5800m they each had five in the top 12. By the finish Arkansas won 25 to 38. This year senior MJ Erb (39th at the 2014 NCAA championships) and junior Sean Tobin (68th in 2015). have shared leadership roles in the three big races they have raced. Tobin (2nd) and Erb (3rd) led Mississippi at the SEC championships. Tobin won the Notre Dame Joe Piane Invitational to lead the runnin’ Rebels to victory.  Erb won the Penn State Open to lead the team to a runner-up finish to Oklahoma State, 47 to 49. #3 to #6 for Mississippi State were seniors Robert Domanic, Craig Engels, and Wes Gallagher and junior Ryan Manahan as they finished 10th to 13th, respectively. Domanic has been #2 or #3 runner all year long, Wes Gallagher has been #3 to #5 runner. Engels and Manahan have finally moved up during the season and they were #4 and #6 at SEC, respectively. That improvement has now put them in a chance to potentially trophy like the rest of this top 10.  Junior Taylor Caldwell could also contribute to the top seven at the NCAA meets coming up. Next up for Mississippi is the D1 South Regional on November 11th.

11. Portland - The Pilots finished second to #5 BYU, 24 to 45, at the WCC championships. Sophomore Nick Hauger was third, junior Jeff Thies was 8th, senior Steve Mulherin was 9th, Tim Ball was 12th, and Danny Martinez was 13th. The Pilots were 7th at Wisconsin Invitational, led by Ball in 24th. Two potential top seven runners, freshmen Tristan Peloquin (59th), and Martinez (69th) ran at Pre-Nationals. They won the Roy Griak Invitational ahead of Iowa State, Boise State, Michigan, Michigan State, and UCLA. Jeff Thies was fifth to lead Portland followed by Hauger (11th) and Ball (12th). Next for Portland is the D1 West Regional on November 11th.

12. Wisconsin - The Badgers won the Big Ten championships 63 to 66 over Michigan State with a victory by Morgan McDonald and the return of senior Malachi Schrobilgen (5th). At the Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational they finished 11th without Schrobilgen but McDonald was third to lead the Badgers. Next for Wisconsin is the D1 Great Lakes Regional on November 11th.

13. Oklahoma State - The Cowboys won the Big 12 title 36 to 49 ahead of Iowa State. Junior Hassan Abdi was third to lead Oklahoma State. Juniors Luis Martinez (5th) and Joshua Thompson (7th) have made a consistent and solid top three with Abdi. Abdi (2nd) and Thompson (3rd) led Oklahoma State to victory at the Penn State Open. Next for Oklahoma State is the D1 Midwest Regional on November 11th.

14. UTEP - This team came into the season with experience and an 11th place finish in 2015. Sophomore Jonah Koech is one of the top returnees after finishing 11th last year. The Miners won Conference USA, 24 to 36 for Middle Tennessee State with a :21 gap from #1 to #5. They were led by Koech (2nd) and senior Cosmas Boit (3rd). UTEP was sixth at ISU Pre-Nationals without top runner Koech. They were led by Boit (9th) and sophomore Antony Kosgei (10th). The Miners were second at the Joe Piane Notre Dame Invitational, Mississippi scored 83 to UTEP’s 99. Koech was 5th ahead of Kosgei in 7th. Next for UTEP is the D1 Mountain Regional on November 11th. 

15. Iowa State - The Cyclones were second at the Big-12 championships behind Oklahoma State, 36 to 49. Freshman Thomas Pollard finished fourth to lead Iowa State. Junior Josef Andrews (8th) and freshman Andrew Jordan (9th) were #2 and #3 for Iowa State. From #1 to #5 there was a :23 gap. Senior Kevin Hoyos (21st) led Iowa State to an 8th place finish at Washington Invitational. They were second at the Roy Griak Invitational. Next for Iowa State is the D1 Midwest Regional on November 11th.

16. Virginia - The Cavaliers finished second (29 to 72 behind Syracuse) at the ACC championships without junior Henry Wynne. Sophomore Brent Demarest was 7th to lead the Cavaliers. Freshman Lachlan Cook (11th), senior Zach Herriot (12th), and junior Chase Weaverling (13th) were next for Virginia. Virginia was third at Virginia Panorama Farms behind BYU and Syracuse. Next for Virginia is the D1 Southeast Regional on November 11th. 

17. Michigan State - The Spartans were barely edged out by Wisconsin for the Big 10 title, 63 to 66. Senior Sherod Hardt tried to make a move and run away with the title but Wisconsin’s Morgan McDonald caught him and ran away with the title. Hardt held on for second.  Sophomore Ryan Robinson was #2 by finishing 11th, followed by senior Clark Ruiz (15th), freshman Morgan Beadlescoomb (18th), and senior Nick Soter (20th). At the Wisconsin Invitational the Spartans finished 18th with Hardt finishing 39th. At Roy Griak they finished 5th with Robinson (4th) and Hardt (15th) leading Michigan State. Last year Michigan State was 25th at the NCAA meet, led by Hardt’s 54th place finish. They return five from last year’s team as the team peaked at the end of the year to make the meet. Next for Michigan State is the D1 Great Lakes Regional on November 11th.

18. Middle Tennessee State - The Raiders challenged UTEP at the Conference USA championships, 24 to 36. Freshman Jacob Choge dominated the race ahead of Jonah Koech, 11th at 2015 NCAA championships. The Raiders put four in the first 10. They finished second at the Greater Louisville Classic (62 to 59 for Virginia Tech) and they won the Commodore Classic. Next for Middle Tennessee State is the D1 South Regional on November 11th.

19. Washington State - Junior Michael Williams and senior John Whelan pushed the pace in the early part of the Pac-12 race but could not hold the pace. Junior Sam Levora was the top finisher in 15th and led Washington State to fifth place. Williams (24th) and Whelan (26th) followed Levora. At the Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational the Cougars finished 9th. Williams (15th) and Whelan (23rd) led Washington State. Washington State finished 26th at the 2015 NCAA championships. Williams was 57th and Whelan was 113th. Next for Washington State is the D1 West Regional on November 11th.

20. Indiana - The Hoosiers finished third at the Big Ten championships. Seniors Jason Crist (3rd) and Matthew Schwartzer (4th) and freshman Ben Veatch (8th) led Indiana. The #1-#5 gap of :49 cost them a team title. Indiana finished 5th at Pre-Nationals. Crist (31st), Schwartzer (37th) and Veatch (38th) led the Hoosiers again. Some of their runners have been up and down. At the 2014 NCAA championships Crist was 65th and Schwartzer was 43rd. With 2015 NXN runner-up Ben Veatch they have a talented roster that could make the top 10 at the NCAA meet. Next for Indiana is the D1 Great Lakes Regional on November 11th.

Teams to Watch 

Eastern Kentucky, Georgetown, North Carolina State, Boise State, Cal, Eastern Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn, Southern Utah, Tulsa, Washington, Providence, Air Force, Illinois